New NBA Draft evaluation formula for college players

June 26, 2007

This may be most valuable not in ordering the talent in the draft but in identifying the likelihood that a player is going to bust.
clipped from

A new system to evaluate the pro potential of college players
Today is the unveiling of a system I’ve developed for evaluating college players’ pro potential, one that works very well when back-tested against previous drafts.

Greg Oden

Think Greg Oden’s a slam dunk to be the No. 1 pick? Think again.

If you look below at the other charts, you’ll notice the top-rated college prospect in each draft (Boozer in ’02, Carmelo Anthony in ’03, Luol Deng in ’04, Chris Paul in ’05, and Tyrus Thomas in ’06) ended up among the few elite players in that year’s college class.

six factors that are indicative of pro success are:
1. Age.
2. Steals.
3. Blocks.
4. Rebounds.
5. 3-pointers.
6. Pure point rating.

Pure point rating is something I created to replace assist-turnover ratio, which is a fairly useless creation
Pure Point = (100* ((Assists * 2/3) – Turnovers))/Minutes
Short guys.
Perimeter players who don’t make 3s.
Really bad rebounders.


Kevin Durant


2007 Draft
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