Researchers project 20 years to hybrid adoption

June 9, 2007

These two researchers have a working paper with more detail, including an early conclusion that word of mouth is important in stimulating diffusion.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=881800

clipped from environment.newscientist.com

US loath to give up gas guzzlers

It is no secret that American drivers are fond of their gas guzzlers. But it may prove tougher than anyone thought to persuade them to switch to greener vehicles.

“Even the current hybrid cars will take a while, maybe 15 to 20 years, before they make any significant impact on fuel consumption,” says Struben.

Jeroen Struben and John Sterman of MIT developed a computer model to study the impact of government policy, economics and consumer behaviour on the adoption of hydrogen-powered and hybrid cars in the US. They found that even with new laws and funding to help educate the public on the merits of alternative fuels and build fuel stations it could still take 20 years before half of the US fleet is converted.

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